The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center has forecast an “above-normal” Atlantic hurricane season for 2024, with a projected range of 17 to 25 named storms, of which eight to 13 are predicted to become hurricanes, a press release from NOAA said.
It is the most storms ever predicted by NOAA in a preseason forecast, said Rick Spinrad, NOAA’s director.
“The forecast… is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” Spinrad said at a news conference in Washington D.C., reported Reuters.
Hurricane season in the Atlantic basin is from the beginning of June to the end of November.
NOAA is predicting an 85 percent chance the season will be above-normal, a 10 percent likelihood it will be “near-normal” and a five percent chance there will be fewer storms than usual.
“All the ingredients are in place for an active season,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, as USA Today reported.
The higher than normal predicted activity is due to a combination of factors, including La Niña conditions developing in the Pacific, near-record Atlantic Ocean temperatures and reduced trade winds and lower wind shear in the Atlantic, NOAA said. Together, these conditions favor the formation of tropical storms.
Light trade winds mean there is no disruption from strong wind shear, which minimizes ocean cooling while allowing hurricanes to strengthen.
Oceans globally are warming due to human-caused climate change. Melting land ice leads to sea level rise, increasing storm surge risk and the potential damage from any given hurricane.
“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” Spinrad said in the press release. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”
NOAA scientists are forecasting a swift transition to the La Niña conditions that tend to be favorable for hurricane activity in the Atlantic after one of the most potent El Niños ever observed.
Erik A. Hooks, FEMA’s deputy administrator, warned those living in areas prone to hurricanes to take precautions ahead of time.
“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” Hooks said in the press release. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”
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