The next United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP28, begins Thursday in the United Arab Emirates. 

The conference, which lasts through December 12, comes at a critical moment in global efforts to contain the climate crisis. The latest UN Emissions Gap Report, released ahead of the talks, found that nations’ current emissions reduction pledges, called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement, would put the world on track for 2.9 degrees Celsius of warming beyond pre-industrial levels by 2100. Yet 2023, at an average 1.1 degrees Celsius of warming, is already shattering records with the hottest temperatures in 125,000 years, which have fueled deadly heat waves, floods and wildfires. 

“The negotiations that are going to start in Dubai… are absolutely crucial, actually, for our chances to limit warming to 1.5C for a variety of reasons,” Romain Ioualalen, global policy manager at Oil Change International, told EcoWatch. “And the first one is because it’s the COP where countries need to agree on a phaseout of fossil fuels, which we know are responsible for the climate crisis and that keep being expanded.”

Fossil Fuel Phaseout

There is a growing movement to negotiate an agreement to phase out fossil fuels at COP28. Despite the fact that the burning of oil, gas and coal is the leading cause of climate change, this has never been pledged at a COP before. COP26 saw a pledge to phase down unabated coal power, and COP27 saw more than 80 nations back a call to phase down all fossil fuels, but this did not make it into the conference’s final text, according to the World Resources Institute. 

Yet a growing number of studies show that continued fossil fuel use is “not compatible” with the 1.5 target, Ioualalen said. The Emissions Gap Report pointed out that currently active and planned oil, gas and coal fields would burn through the remaining 1.5 carbon budget by a factor of 3.5. Another study released in October found that the remaining carbon budget may be even smaller than the UN estimates at 250 metric gigatons of carbon dioxide, meaning that the world would blow through it in just over five years of current emissions levels.

Shady Khalil, campaigns lead with Greenpeace Middle East and North Africa, agreed that a fossil fuel phaseout would be “central” to meeting the 1.5 target. 

“The continued reliance on fossil fuels is a major driver of greenhouse gas emissions, which are the primary cause of global warming,” Khalil told EcoWatch, adding that a COP28 commitment to justly phasing out fossil fuels “is the only way forward!”

Ioualalen said that a fossil fuel phaseout would have to be backed by a commitment to replace oil, gas and coal with a massive buildout of renewable energy, and an acknowledgement of the fact that wealthy countries have burned more carbon-based fuels and have both the means and the responsibility to jettison them more rapidly and to help poorer nations fund their energy transitions. 

But how likely is it after nearly 30 years of COPs that countries would finally agree to end fossil fuels?

Ioualalen said it was “likelier than ever” given that it was for the first time at the top of the agenda and that influential parties, including the European Parliament and several individual European, Latin American and Pacific nations, have backed a phaseout. 

“We believe and know that it is achievable and doable,” Khalil added.

Beyond that, climate activists and organizations have rallied around the call.

“Civil society’s unified stance in raising these ambitions and securing commitments at COP28 is a powerful force,” Khalil said. “This collective voice from civil society organizations, activists, and concerned citizens worldwide adds significant pressure and moral imperative for nations to act.”

That said, oil-rich nations like Saudi Arabia will likely use procedure to try to delay an agreement, Ioualalen told EcoWatch.

“It’s still going to be a fight,” he said.

Global Stocktake 

COP28 is notable in part because it marks the end of the first Global Stocktake under the Paris agreement. During the stocktake, which will take place every five years after 2023, parties to the agreement review the progress they have made toward its goals and use that assessment to inform future commitments. 

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) published its synthesis report on the technical dialogue of the first global stocktake in September, which concluded that, while nations remained committed to the Paris agreement, they were far off track from meeting the 1.5 target and needed to curb emissions 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 to get back on course. 

The success of this first Global Stocktake, Ioualalen said, will depend on what COP28 delegates choose to do with that information. 

The final document “needs to acknowledge the dire situation that we’re collectively in and it needs to make a number of useful recommendations on the way forward,” he said.

Three key recommendations include a phaseout of fossil fuels, a doubling of renewable efficiency, and a clear statement that nations must update their NDCs for 2030 and 2035 in line with these goals.

“The Global Stocktake must conclude with outcomes that kick-start transformative action across the board to limit temperatures to 1.5ºC and respond to increasing climate impacts, building resilience,” Khalil added.

Climate Finance

Another key agenda item at COP28 will be the degree to which wealthier countries will help poorer nations financially to reduce their emissions, adapt to climate impacts and recover from the losses and damages already caused by the climate emergency.

COP27 saw a major breakthrough with an agreement to create just such a “Loss and Damage” fund. However, this year, delegates need to hammer out exactly how this will work. Negotiations between developed and developing countries to craft a list of recommendations for the fund dragged on past the initial four meetings and had to be resolved in a special session in Abu Dhabi in early November.

Khalil said that one of Greenpeace’s main goals at COP28 was “a credible finance package that responds to increasing real-world needs, includes the launch of a new Loss and Damage Fund, and moves us closer to making polluters pay for the destruction and harm they have caused.”

However, Ioualalen thought it was possible that major financial negotiations would be pushed to next year, when countries need to agree on a new target to update the $100 billion a year in climate funding that wealthier countries were supposed to send to poorer ones by 2020.

Canada’s Minister of Environment Steven Guilbeault and Germany’s State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action Jennifer Morgan said in September they were sure that goal was finally met this year — three years late — but financial data to prove it will not be available until 2025.

Undue Influence 

One major concern heading into COP28 is how the fossil fuel industry may work to derail negotiations. This has been a long-running concern at COPs. Last year, at COP27, there were at least 636 fossil fuel lobbyists, more than there were representatives of the 10 nations most impacted by the climate crisis. A report released by the Kick Big Polluters Out coalition ahead of this year’s talks found that fossil fuel industry or trade association representatives had attended UN climate talks at least 7,200 times in the last two decades.

This year, however, COP28 faces what Ioualalen called a “conflict of interest of unprecedented dimensions” with the appointment of UAE national oil company CEO Sultan Al Jaber to preside over the talks. Oil Change International has found that both the UAE and its Abu Dhabi National Oil Company are some of the worst culprits when it comes to expanding oil and gas production.

“It is creating a lot of skepticism or lack of trust in the process,” Ioualalen said. 

And this was before the Center for Climate Reporting revealed Monday that Al Jaber had planned to use talks with foreign leaders about COP28 to promote oil and gas deals, according to documents shared by a whistleblower. 

“The only hope for this COP — and really for this planet — is that our revulsion at revelations like these somehow spurs the movements necessary to break the power of Big Oil,” veteran climate activist and 350.org co-founder Bill McKibben wrote in response to the news.

Civil society groups like Oil Change International and Greenpeace are certainly hoping to act as a counterweight to fossil fuel lobbyists at the talks. Both back a move to develop a conflict of interest policy for the UNFCCC. Civil society groups are also working to inform policy-makers, delegates and the public about the danger of relying on unproven technological fixes pushed by the fossil fuel sector like carbon capture and sequestration, which Ioualalen described as a “Trojan horse for continued expansion of oil and gas production disguised as climate action.” 

Concerned individuals who can’t attend COP28 can help shape the outcome as well. 

Khalil said that the three main things people could do were inform themselves about the climate crisis, its impacts and solutions; raise awareness with friends and family and on social media; and contact their political representatives. 

“They can encourage leaders to take bold actions and make ambitious commitments during the conference,” Khalil said.

Ioualalen agreed, and said this was especially true of people in the U.S., which is behind 20 percent of planned oil and gas expansion through 2050.

“People in the U.S. have a real opportunity to tell their government that this is not the way forward and that the U.S. has a responsibility to lead on this question and not just promote the interests of its fossil fuel industry back home,” Ioualalen said.

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